Underlying uncertainty for manufacturing industry in 2026
Underlying uncertainty means manufacturing industry ouput could swing positively or negatively in 2026, says Interact Analysis, depending on global events and tariffs. Its latest manufacturing industry output forecast suggests that while there is now more clarity about what tariffs will be and the subsequent short-term impacts, the risk of further retaliatory measures remains. A resilient US economy could reduce the perceived economic cost of tariffs, increasing the likelihood of tariffs being introduced by other territories. Jack Loughney, Interact Analysis Senior Data Analyst, UK, says, "The US did manage to grow in 2025 even in the face of tariffs. Whether they were simply burning through buffer and will enter a much slower period this year should become quickly apparent as the year continues.”
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